Forecasting mosquito populations in response to meteorological variables

Project overview

Lachlan Griffin, MPhil

My project is using data from the Debug Innisfail project that saw the release of millions of sterile mosquitoes into suburbs and the surrounding landscape. This resulted in large amounts of spatial and temporal data that has the unique sterilisation technique. My work is in trying to estimate the abundance of the wild mosquito populations using Bayesian state-space modelling, a popular technique to distilling data, models and expert opinion to provide defensible predictions.


The outcome of my work is to gain insight into the mechanisms that drive mosquito population dynamics and estimate total populations for a given suburb. In addition, this research aims to establish the efficacy of SIT as a bio-control strategy and identify an efficient number of sterile mosquitoes to release to suppress the wild population. If this bio-control strategy is found to be an efficient method, it may change traditional control strategies and reduce public health risk from the vectoring mosquitoes.

Project team

Lachlan Griffin, MPhil

Christopher Drovandi & Michael Bode. External supervisor: Dr Daniel Pagendam, CSIRO Data 61