PBCRC 2100: Decision Making for Eradication and Quarantine

This project will develop methods, protocols and software to improve the capacity to make scientifically robust decisions to improve quarantine limits and optimise eradication strategies.

When pest incursions are detected, decisions about how to respond in order to minimise economic and environmental damage need to be made rapidly. Following containment, appropriate actions for removal of the pest need to be planned and implemented. Depending on the knowledge of the organism and the experience of the decision makers, the setting of limits for quarantine zones and planning eradication strategies can be ad hoc, with little regard to the dispersal capacity of organisms, environmental factors such as temperature or landscape factors such as topography and host availability.

This project aims to integrate three phases (estimation, quantitative analysis of probability of occurrence for an incursion, and spatial optimisation of eradication techniques) into a single framework for the first time.

These phases are:

  • approximate Bayesian computation for the estimation of incursion parameters
  • forward simulation Monte Carlo approach to project the incursion in time and determine probability zones at different points in time, and
  • cutting edge Bayesian techniques to provide optimal allocation of treatment efforts in space that will enable efficient eradications.

This will allow incursion responses to be modified as the incursion continues and more data becomes available. Few quantitative methods have been available to assist with setting quarantine zones and targeting eradications in space and time.

This project will be carried out in Far North Queensland and around Brisbane

For more details see the PBCRC project description page here