Activity 4: Risk-Based Cost-Benefit Study

Project dates: 01/05/2017 - Ongoing


The risk-based cost-benefit model uses the first-order second moment method of engineering reliability analysis that has been shown, by simulation, to be a more efficient and powerful way of assessing uncertainty than other predictive techniques such as Monte Carlo Simulation and Latin Hypercube Sampling, particularly for systems with multiple uncertain variables. As part of the innovation in this study, instead of testing by simulation, this model will be tested using empirical operational data. The challenge of this study is to evaluate the uncertainties in the collected data and generate reliable risk metrics for assessing multiple options. The proposed risk-based cost-benefit model will quantify the risks of a school project in an accurate and efficient way. The recommendations of this model will then be tested using data collected from the schools by determining whether those schools with the least overlap of costs and benefits on the probability density function more closely match those schools with superior Value Ratings and vice versa.


As part of this project, Linna Geng completed her PhD. She received her PhD completion letter on 29 April 2022 from UoM. Dr Geng also recently received the PhD Write Up Award from UoM’s Faculty of Engineering & IT. Congratulations Dr Geng!